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I favorevoli alla naturalizzazione agevolata per gli stranieri di terza generazione e al fondo per le strade nazionali erano in vantaggio a tre settimane dalle votazioni federali del 12 febbraio. Ma se il "sì" al FOSTRA appare praticamente sicuro, secondo il sondaggio realizzato dall'istituto gfs di Berna per la SSR nel caso del primo oggetto le resistenze sono in aumento. Gli esperti propendono comunque ancora per una sua approvazione. Ancora molto incerto, invece, l'esito della consultazione sul terzo tema, la terza riforma dell'imposizione delle imprese. In questo caso però la tendenza rispetto all'inchiesta del 6 gennaio sembra condurre verso una bocciatura alle urne.
Naturalizzazioni agevolate
Nel dettaglio, fra le 1'423 persone interrogate nella settimana compresa fra il 18 e il 25 gennaio (716 nella Svizzera tedesca, 403 in Romandia e 304 in quella italiana) il 66% si è detto certamente o piuttosto favorevole a concedere più facilmente il passaporto ai nipoti di immigrati. Erano il 74% in occasione della prima inchiesta. I contrari sono saliti dal 21 al 31%. La campagna raffigurante una donna in burqa ha avuto un impatto, anche se l'UDC rimane isolata nel combattere la riforma.
Fondo per le strade nazionali
Sul FOSTRA crescono i pro (dal 60 al 62%) e diminuiscono i contro (dal 32 al 28%), mentre un cittadino su dieci è ancora indeciso. Il "sì" prevale anche fra gli elettori di Verdi e PS e ha conosciuto il progresso più forte nella Svizzera italiana.
Terza riforma dell'imposizione delle imprese
Per quanto riguarda infine la RI III, i favorevoli restano in vantaggio, ma solo di misura (45% contro 44%) e appaiono in netta perdita di velocità, mentre i contrari in poche settimane hanno guadagnato 9 punti. La polarizzazione è forte fra destra e sinistra e fra più e meno abbienti. Il voto potrebbe essere deciso da quell'11% che ancora non sa cosa scrivere sulla scheda.
Il margine di errore è del +/- 2,7%. Quanto alla partecipazione, il 47% si dice certo di andare a votare. Non si prevede quindi una mobilitazione straordinaria.
pon
Per saperne di più consulta il nostro dossier:
Dal TG20:
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