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La popolazione mondiale sfiorerà i 10 miliardi di esseri umani nel 2050 e arriverà a 11 entro la fine del secolo. È quanto emerge dall'ultima analisi biennale dell’istituto demografico francese INED.
Uno dei grandi cambiamenti futuri riguarda l’Africa, i cui abitanti dovrebbero quadruplicare nei prossimi 85 anni, raggiungendo quota 4,4 miliardi. Già prima del 2030, invece, il primato della nazionalità più rappresentata sul pianeta passerà dalla Cina all’India.
La situazione attuale
La crescita demografica sta decelerando. Cinquant’anni fa ha raggiunto un picco del 2%, oggi è all’1,2%. "Anche se la fecondità diminuisce", precisa Gilles Pison, l’autore dello studio, "è illusorio credere che la popolazione umana diminuisca". La stabilizzazione demografica è attesa tra circa 100 anni.
afp/ZZ
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