Il franco forte continua a pesare sulle esportazioni in Svizzera e, di conseguenza, sulla crescita del prodotto interno lordo (PIL). Questo, in sintesi, è il quadro che emerge da uno studio di UBS.
Secondo i dati raccolti, la moneta svizzera non dovrebbe indebolirsi nei prossimi mesi e, di conseguenza, l'economia svizzera quest'anno aumenterà lievemente, dello 0,5%, per poi registrare un incremento superiore nel 2016, dell'1,1%. Le previsioni congiunturali della Confederazione tracciate a gennaio dalla stessa banca, quindi, sono state confermate anche dallo studio pubblicato oggi, mercoledì.
Secondo lo scenario disegnato, inoltre, fino a dicembre il tasso di cambio euro/franco dovrebbe oscillare tra 1 e 1,05 e se questa previsione dovesse essere confermata, le esportazioni continueranno a diminuire. Allo stesso tempo, però, l'ipotizzata accelarazione della crescita in Eurozona, in particolare nel secondo semestre, dovrebbe supportare il settore dell'export della Confederazione, permettendo un aumento maggiore del PIL.
La minaccia di un'uscita della Grecia dall'Eurozona non cambia le previsioni di UBS sulla crescita svizzera. Non è decisivo se la Grexit ci sarà o no, decisivo sarà come eventualmente avverrà, ha sottolinea il capoeconomista Daniel Kalt durante la presentazione dello studio a Zurigo.
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