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La decisione della Banca nazionale di abbandonare la soglia minima di cambio con l’euro all’economia elvetica è costata 13 miliardi. Ad indicarlo è il Credit Suisse che ha simulato il costo del rafforzamento della moneta elvetica. Ipotizzando un cambio costante a quota 1,20 e considerando la crescita effettivamente osservata nell'Eurozona, si stima che tra il primo trimestre 2015 e il primo trimestre 2016 il prodotto interno (PIL) svizzero sarebbe aumentato del 2,3%, l’1,6% in più quindi dello 0,7% registrato dalla Segreteria di Stato dell'economia.
I dati sono contenuti nella pubblicazione trimestrale "Monitor Svizzera". Secondo gli economisti della grande banca per il settore dell'export il peggio è ormai passato, ma l'economia interna sta ancora facendo i conti con gli effetti della mossa del 15 gennaio 2015.
Le previsioni indicano una progressione del PIL dell'1,0% quest'anno e dell'1,5% nel 2017 con prospettive non molto positive per gli utili delle aziende (ai minimi) e di riflesso per le finanze pubbliche e, in particolare, quelle dei cantoni.
Diem/ATS
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