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UBS conferma le sue previsioni sulla crescita dell'economia svizzera: stando agli esperti della grande banca il prodotto interno lordo (PIL) salirà dello 0,8% quest'anno e dell'1,8% nel 2018. Per la prima volta viene fornita anche una stima per il 2019: la progressione rimarrà stabile all'1,8%.
La crescita economica svizzera ha deluso nel primo semestre, affermano gli economisti di UBS. Grazie all'indebolimento del franco e alla solida congiuntura globale vi è però da aspettarsi una sensibile accelerazione nei prossimi trimestri.
La ripresa dei prezzi del greggio e l'indebolimento del franco faranno aumentare l'inflazione, che si attesterà allo 0,5% nel 2017 e allo 0,6% nei dodici mesi seguenti. L'anno prossimo il tasso di disoccupazione dovrebbe tornare al di sotto del 3%. Per quanto riguarda i cambi, il franco si è sensibilmente rafforzato, sulla scia della previsione di una conclusione del programma di acquisti obbligazionari da parte della Banca centrale europea. Ciò nonostante UBS a breve termine non prevede alcuna svolta nella politica monetaria praticata dalla Banca nazionale svizzera.
ATS/Swing
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