A pochi giorni dal primo anniversario dall'inizio dell'invasione russa in Ucraina, il presidente russo Vladimir Putin, nel suo discorso di martedì, ha rilanciato le accuse contro i Paesi occidentali e ha annunciato la sospensione del trattato nucleare New Start, l'ultimo accordo sulla riduzione delle armi atomiche sottoscritto da Stati Uniti e Russia. Ma cosa implica questa mossa? La RSI lo ha chiesto all'esperto di sicurezza internazionale al Politecnico di Zurigo, Mauro Gilli.
Cos’è il trattato New Start da cui la Russia si sospende? E cosa implica la sua adesione?
"Il trattato New Start è un trattato bilaterale tra Stati Uniti e Federazione Russa per la riduzione degli armamenti nucleari. In particolare, per quanto concerne le testate cosiddette “strategiche”, cioè quelle che hanno una forte potenza distruttiva e possono colpire obiettivi a lungo raggio. La loro adesione implica l’impegno da parte delle due grandi potenze per la riduzione di queste testate ad un massimo di 1'500 e poi meccanismi di monitoraggio all’ottemperanza di questo impegno e notifica in caso di esercitazione nucleare".
È una notizia che ci deve allarmare? La minaccia atomica evocata da Putin in altre occasioni si fa dunque più concreta?
"Direi di no, non c’è ragione oggettiva di preoccuparsi. Questo trattato è stato cercato a lungo ma la decisione della Russia di uscirne non ha grandi conseguenze. Se la Russia dovesse decidere di aumentare il proprio arsenale di armi nucleari incorrerebbe solo in grandi costi che non danno alcun tipo di vantaggio. Chiaramente, ci si preoccupa quando si spendono molte risorse in armi nucleari, ma il rischio di uso non aumenterebbe. È qualcosa che tutti noi avremmo preferito non succedesse, ma in termini pratici non cambia molto nelle relazioni tra le due grandi potenze o sulla stabilità internazionale".
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