Utilizzando un nuovo modello statistico, un team di ricerca internazionale con partecipazione svizzera ha rivisto le stime sul numero di vittime della guerra in Ucraina. Secondo questo modello nel primo anno di conflitto sarebbero morti circa 76'700 militari russi e 17'200 ucraini.
"Abbiamo cercato di stimare le cifre corrette partendo dalle poche informazioni disponibili", ha spiegato oggi, martedì, a Keystone-ATS Niklas Stoehr, professore del politecnico di Zurigo, specialista nella registrazione statistica di fenomeni difficili da misurare.
In collaborazione con ricercatori dell'Università della North Carolina e dell'Università di Chicago negli Stati Uniti, l'informatico ha sviluppato un modello, basato sulla cosiddetta statistica bayesiana, in grado di stimare le perdite durante i conflitti. I risultati sono stati pubblicati nell'ultimo numero della rivista "Pnas Political Science".
Per ogni militare russo ucciso le fonti russe hanno riportato solo 0,3 vittime, rileva lo studio. Al contrario, per ogni militare ucraino ucciso, le fonti russe hanno riportato 4,3 vittime.
Secondo lo studio, anche le fonti ucraine hanno sovrastimato i morti della controparte, riportando quasi il doppio di vittime rispetto alla stima del nuovo modello. Gli autori non hanno invece riscontrato alcuna prova di parzialità sistematica nei resoconti ucraini sulle morti dei propri soldati.
Ucraina, l'analisi dell'esperto
Telegiornale 09.08.2023, 20:00
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